А.А. Gorlov. USING CURVE LEARNINGS FOR EVALUATING THE DYNAMICS OF DEVELOPMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES
A common problem for all types of renewable energy is the fact that their introduction takes place against the backdrop of the developed market of traditional hydrocarbon energy. This causes competition for the funds of potential investors, although at present there is a significant reduction in costs of the most advanced technologies of RES, which in some cases already makes alternative energy more attractive. Within the framework of this article, a detailed analysis of the theoretical backgrounds for the use of learning curves for RES research aimed at reducing the high degree of uncertainty about the future competitiveness, profitability and payback periods of renewable energy projects was carried out. The article considers the main advantages and disadvantages of the proposed mathematical tool. Attention is drawn to the possibility of using the apparatus of learning curves for RES technologies, which are currently at the earliest stages of development. The methodology presented in this article can be used to assess and predict the dynamics of traditional energy substitution processes by various new and developing RES technologies within the framework of individual or a group of countries in the North Sea basin.
Key words: renewable energy, traditional energy, dynamics of development of renewable energy sources, learning curves, assessment methodology, substitution processes in the energy sector.